From sales reports to forecasts: use restaurant figures well
What is the difference between sales analysis and a forecast?
Sales analysis describes what has happened. A forecast estimates a future result using history and assumptions. Both can help, but forecasts need to be checked against actual results. Spreadsheets and analytics tools alike require consistent definitions and accurate records.
Last Saturday tells you something about next Saturday, but not everything. An extra opening hour, rain or a large booking can change the conditions. Use history as a starting point and make the assumptions visible.
Identify the decision the figure will support
Hourly sales may help with staffing. Kitchen preparation also needs information about which dishes guests order. Cash planning requires a distinction between sales and when the money reaches your account.
Start with one decision, then select the measure. A revenue total cannot answer all three questions.
Build a simple baseline forecast
A hypothetical example: four comparable Saturday lunches recorded 80, 90, 100 and 90 transactions. The average is 90. That is a basic starting point, not a promise about the next lunch.
Check whether the periods are comparable. Were opening hours consistent? Was takeaway included each time? Was one date a public holiday? Record how you handle exceptions so the comparison can be repeated.
Add what you know about the next service
Bookings, local events and menu changes may justify an adjustment. Write down why you changed the baseline. Later, you can assess whether the adjustment helped or merely introduced another guess.
Consider a quieter and a busier scenario. Decide in advance what can be adjusted during the day, such as preparation quantities or task allocation. A range can be more useful than a figure with several decimal places.
Check performance before increasing reliance
Compare each forecast with the actual result. If the forecast was 90 transactions and the result was 75, it overestimated demand by 15 transactions. Repeated errors in the same direction are a reason to examine the assumptions.
A spreadsheet may be sufficient. An integrated analytics tool can reduce the work of moving and compiling records, but it does not choose your definitions or make your decisions. A more sophisticated forecast should also be compared with the simple baseline to establish whether it adds value.
Vendion Analytics brings restaurant reporting together. Start a demonstration with a decision you want better evidence to support.
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