Purchasing for Valborg: use data and AI to build a flexible plan

Ahead of Sweden’s Valborg celebrations, bookings may be stable while walk-ins and terrace demand remain harder to estimate. Avoid buying everything as though the most optimistic scenario were certain. Decide what needs committing now and what can wait.

Separate the sources of demand

Start with confirmed bookings and preorders. Estimate walk-ins, bar trade and takeaway separately. Compare services with similar menus, opening hours and local activities.

Weather can affect conditions, but the same forecast means different things for an indoor restaurant and one with most seats outside. Treat it as an uncertain factor. There is no universal percentage translating sunshine into additional portions.

Create three scenarios

Write down low, expected and high demand. For each, identify dishes placing most pressure on the kitchen, ingredients at risk of running out and items difficult to use afterwards.

Specify what would trigger a change, such as altered bookings or an unusable terrace. Scenarios become useful when connected to a decision and a responsible person.

Plan around supplier deadlines

Check ordering cutoffs, delivery days, minimum quantities and holiday changes. Split purchases where practical. A later top-up may be preferable to buying all fresh ingredients early, but only if delivery is feasible.

Count stock before ordering. Consider usable quantity, shelf life and already planned consumption. POS records do not replace checking what is physically in storage.

Let AI summarise and the kitchen decide

Ask for a summary of portions sold during comparable services and current bookings, with missing information identified. A language-model response is not by itself a validated demand forecast or a completed purchase order.

With Vendion Analytics and AI, you can work with available sales records in the same system. The responsible person still needs to check quantities and supplier orders.

Review waste where it occurs

Record leftovers from preparation, service and plates, and their causes. Review sold-out dishes too. Low waste alone is not a good outcome if many guests could not order.

The Swedish Food Agency provides food-waste guidance for businesses to support systematic work. Save observations alongside the purchase plan so the next holiday is planned from more than memories of a busy evening.